History in the making, let's keep track

Circuit City went chapter 11 today. GM stock hit $3.02 and the down grades hit hard. Gas is at about $2.00/ gallon and Opec wants to cut production again. DHL shuts down express delivery cutting 9600 jobs. AGI will get $150,000,000,000 up $40,000,000,000. Automotive dependent cities are calling a possible GM bankruptcy a economic tsunami calling for disaster aid the equivalent of a natural disaster. Stocks in China were up because of a $500,000,000,000 stimulus announcement. That was today 11/10/2008 Monday. What will happen tomorrow? Obama gets sworn in Jan 20, 2009. Somethings got to give and let's watch.

Nov. 11 day 2, Tuesday, uneventful. It looks like bad news was saved for Monday. The stocks dropped a little. The only thing of note is in the morning the news said president Bush would be willing to give loans to auto companies if he gets a Columbia free trade act. Later in the day, before it could help stocks the news changed to the government is willing to step in and help the auto companies sooner rather than later. Auto stocks are way down. GM at $2.98 and Ford at $1.80. Should you buy auto stocks now? People got very wealthy buying Chrysler stock when it almost went bankrupt a long time ago. Ford stock is the safer bet because they have enough money to hold up longer but GM is close to bankruptcy and so the stock is set for bigger gains faster although it's the bigger risk. I talked to a guy that took all the money he could ($10,000.00) and bought Chrysler back when everyone was asking if the government will save them. He made enough money to retire and open his own high end shoe store. Not bad!!

Nov 12 day 3, Wednesday, Nothing big. Oil drops below $60.00 a barrel. Gas is about $2.00/ gallon. More lay offs and temporary shut downs announced. Dow down 400 but GM and Ford up a little. The US Treasury Secretary said a deal should be worked out next week for $25,000,000,000.00 to the auto companies for a stake in the companies and some promises. The US gov said the bank bail out is intended for the banks not to fix bad mortgages. For the first time a short blip on the news about the 10,000,000 retirees that will suffer if the autos go bankrupt. Up to now all we hear is 1,500,000 jobs lost. Everyone with money in the auto stock would be out of luck (value 0) Only 20% of the public supports an auto bail out yet the government is making it a top priority for next week. There's a big disconnect there. The people must just not know that an auto bankruptcy would be a global disaster worse than the depression in the 1930s. This was stated on the news. I think we're all just waiting. Let's see if it's more of the same tomorrow.

Thursday, Nov 13, 2008, day 3 of this blog's political tracking. Morning, foreclosures are up 25% in October over last year. The US announcement, it's changing the big bail out to focus on small finance and credit card companies instead of the banks, brought stocks down. (I hope I have that right, I'll check later) Retailers reporting in, all down from 6% to 12% sales in October. Computer sales are down, oil dropped to $55.00/ barrel over night. Food markets will now run shopping carts through a machine that kills germs. That's pretty cool but I hope they clean door handles also. Automatic doors are good but the rest rooms don't have auto doors. The owner of Lear corp. will buy another large chunk of his own companies stock. Village Ford in Dearborn, MI is giving you 5 shares of Ford stock to test drive a car. You get 100 shares if you buy a car. That's $200.00 worth but if the stock goes back to $30.00/share you'll have $3,000.00. Not bad!! Should we buy auto stocks? Well they're pretty much telling us that the government will bail them out or give them loans. I say it is time to buy. Think, GM was at $60.00/share, it's at $3.00/share. You buy $3,000 worth or 1000 shares. At $60.00 that 1000 shares is $60,000.00. It's almost a sure bet and the pay off should be huge. It's a no brainier. Ford or GM stocks could be great Christmas presents this year. Much better than a lottery ticket and about the same price. I'm in but remember you can loose all that money if things go wrong. It's a gamble but much better than the lottery. lets see what happens this afternoon. I bought what I could in Ford stock. Let us know if you got in with a comment to this blog. PM report - The stock market finished up 500 points with a days swing of 900 points. Bush says the Free Trade policies are not to blame for the current economic crisis. The news failed to mention why or what he was responding to. Bush says we just need to restructure the system some. To me that's the same thing as saying we need to put controls on a free system. Kind of a oxymoron of sorts.

Nov 14, Friday, am, Looks like more of the same. The news says there's no support by the republicans for an automotive bail out. Don't they know 10 million people will loose their retirements if that sector fails. Funny that the banks receiving 700 billion started getting money and when ask where the money is being spent they replied by saying there's nothing in the agreement that says they have to say. That's so arrogant and ridiculous it sounds like some spoiled kids. Check back later for an update. PM, DOW down 373 points. Emergency meeting of congress called this weekend. Retail sales were down more than ever recorded since they started keeping track in 1984 lead by autos. I just passed a gas station selling for $1.89/gal. The Democrats are trying to get the republicans to support money for loans to keep the auto companies going. The UAW leader says that if the government doesn't act to help the auto sector the country will surly fall into depression. So if we put these stories together, president Bush wants free trade with Columbia to support auto, the republicans are against the auto company loans. The Democrats will not tie Columbia free trade to the loans and they want part of the 700 Billion to give the 25 Billion to auto loans. It may sound crazy but the Democrats are trying to get money where it's needed to save people from disaster and the republicans are trying to get something out of the deal. Are the republicans really saying it's OK for America to suffer another depression. My gosh, that's insane. Something isn't right here. Someone on the republican side better start explaining or we'll have to assume they are the biggest danger to the American public. Maybe the truth will come out soon. Check back tomorrow

Nov 15, Sat, 1980 AM, Another uneventful day. No stock trading on the weekend. No word on the government meeting yet for what to do about economy. Getting out and talking to people - One guy is selling stuff and opening an account to buy Ford stock. One lady said she heard we should start buying canned food because things look bad. One guy says don't worry, they will not let it happen but yet he's been stashing cash for an unrelated reason but he will not buy stock. One guy says " Those dam Bush better get the heck out of there before he wrecks the whole country" He's been stashing cash but still holds his core energy stocks. I'm holding a token amount of Ford stock because the analysts say Ford and Toyota are the only two auto companies that have what it takes going forward. That is the right product mix, the quality and enough cash not to go broke. Honda was mentioned as being strong also. A big time retired hedge fund guy says the whole direction of stocks and the economy hinge on weather autos get the gov loans. While out it's scary to see how worried people are about their job and having money. a lot of them have hours cut back or have lost their job already. People that still have jobs wonder for how long. Suppliers are already finding it hard to get paid for work done. If there's any good news to report I guess we may get hope of some positive direction by government in the next day or so. I'll see what I can dig up on the government meeting going on and report out in tomorrows thoughts. This is mlip saying we still have hope. Check back soon.

Sunday, Nov 16, 2008 am, The only thing to report is the debate over auto company loans will continue on Monday. Sunday is still a day to relax. Last Monday was a day of big news saved up it seems over the weekend. Check back and see

Monday, Nov 17, 2008 pm, Democrats are vowing to have some kind of auto help in place this week. The debate is going on now. City bank is laying off 53,000 people world wide. 3 or 4 other financial organizations are cutting back. It seems every day more major lay offs. It was mentioned today on the news that the people in many states don't see any reason to help auto companies. They say there's plenty of other car brands to choose from. That's the way it might appear but the reality I'm sure would be a shock. We'll see

Tuesday/Wednesday combined 11/18 & 19/2008, Sorry I'm late on Tuesday's report. I watched the meeting going on in Washington regarding the auto company loans. There is some hope that something will come through. A compromise bill is being worked on. I try to stay up-beat but I'm down right scared. I find it tougher to write in this blog. I'll try and keep it up.

Thursday, 11/20/2008, The news is all about the auto bail out that has been set for another round of talks around December 8th. At least the door isn't closed. The auto giants must present a business plan that Washington likes. Ford stock is at about $1.00 and GM is at about $2.00. The DOW is down to below 8000. Car sales are in the tank for the entire world.

Thursday Nov. 27, It's been a week and not much has gone on. City Bank gets 20 billion + 300 billion in bad loan guarantees. Obama is calling for something like 800 billion in economic stimulus to provide loans and get things moving again. They say Obama is already filling the shoes of president and it seems as if for now we have two presidents at the same time. It's also said that this is the first time in history this has happened. Weather you like Obama or not I say way to go. If ever there was a time to get off ones butt, it's now. Ford/Volvo made #1 in the insurance top safety pick with 16 of the top safety pick vehicles. Ford not to long ago was placed even with the best in quality by JD Powers and Consumer Reports. Chrysler didn't make the safety list and GM had 6 vehicles. Their quality is also still lagging behind. Ford and GM stock have both about doubled in the last week and 1/2. There seems to be a lot of people looking down on American car companies but Ford has taken the number one spot (Quality and safety combined) as the best vehicle you can buy. I'd say Ford stock is a pretty good bet if you're into buying stock. I notice that the world markets are on the way up. It seems as though they wait to see what America will do and react accordingly. America is making a lot of moves and the world is liking it. Things are still reacting to fast. We need to recover, stabilize and maintain steady growth. The big companies with pots of money so huge want everything now. They needed to slow down. Some say America is going to far left to socialist programs. Will the auto companies get a loan? Let's watch and see. Come back soon.

Thursday 12/4/08 All is fairly calm. Obama is picking his crew and the next round of auto bail out talks start today. Ford stock is about $3.00 now and GM is below $4.00. There's a guess that if there's no bail out you'll see an immediate chapter 11 filing. Something like 5 countries have already helped their auto companies. They say the government has a double standard between the autos and banks which have received 100s of billions already under loose terms. One small tid bit I read on a clip is commercial real estate defaults are on the rise. The feds have come out and said we are in recession and have been since last December. In the past 5 or 6 recessions when they say it's recession that marks the end of recession and is usually announced when the stock market has already started to rise, which it has. If you follow historical repeats the DOW is going to climb fast but the economic recovery for middle class will take more time. The signs say you should be in stocks now. The question is, which ones? Look at Ford stock so far. It was down to $1.12/share and it's now about $3.00 in a few short weeks. I'll try to follow the which sector does what and if history does do it again.

Sunday, December 7th, 2008, Consensus says Obama will get a blank check to fix the economy and they give it 9 to 12 months for the proof of recovery to be apparent. They think his first one to two quarters will see poor economic performance. They think we're at the bottom but if Obama does nothing are we really at the bottom or is what he will put in place economically cause the bottom. The auto bail out talks are coming to a close. A package will be voted on next week. Ford stock is over $3.00 and GM is over $4.00/share. History says "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news". If this is true we can expect Ford and GM stock to go up until the bail out loans are announced. After that where's the good news? The news I assume will find something else to focus on and it will not be good. Auto numbers will come out for December and they will not be good. The stock market looks forward. Depending on the sector it might be 6 months, it might be 1 year. Some stocks are probably 1 day. I heard auto stocks look 6 months out. I'd say that applies to large $$ investors. There's a section of investment that simply looks long term. Say in 2 or 3 years the auto stocks could be way up. The day traders are looking at tomorrow. I think the autos could take a jump in price when the loan news comes out and then gradually drop as the news talks things down. I would wait for a dip in price and buy Ford stock as it does have the best position for recovery. Let's see if I'm right and history tells the story.

12/21/2008, The auto loans were put in place by Bush. He didn't look happy. A kid that didn't get his way. We were starting to see people demonstrating here and in China for the government or federal bank to do something. Now GM and Chrysler have until March 31 st. Obama is putting his team together and it's lame duck time nothing is happening. Obama has a science team. He said science will take a new lead to shape our future.